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Second Guessing The Experts
By Mark Williams
We have become a society that places a great deal of confidence in the
judgment of experts. Whether the issue at hand is politics, economics, or
metaphysics, we are compelled to evaluate the considered opinion of dozens of
experts before formulating our own beliefs -- and certainly before taking any
action. This is part of the process of being well informed.
The flaw in this process is that some issues are not like any others that
have gone before them, and past experience may work against us. In the
never-ending quest for quotable sources, the media can make anyone an expert
for about 15 seconds. Stockbrokers, former politicians, ex-CEO's, and movie
stars are among the most popular choices for an ongoing analysis of critical
situations. And the fact is that the people closest to the challenge may not
have the best grasp of it.
In doing a little internet research this week, I came across a list of
assessments made by leading authorities in their respective fields. These
span aviation, economics, technology, and the behavioral characteristics of
the American people.
"Man will not fly for 50 years." -- Wilbur Wright to his brother
Orville in
1901.
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." --
Irving
Fisher, professor of economics, Yale University, in 1929
"I see no advantage to the graphical user interface." -- Bill Gates,
in 1984
"The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their
eyes
glued to a screen. The average American family hasn't got time for it."
--
The New York Times in 1939
There is definite humor in hindsight. But there's also a message here too:
Even the world's foremost experts can be somewhat shortsighted in their
findings, if their assessment of a situation is based solely on the existing
information. New information is critical to developing new approaches.
The next 11 months hold a great deal of uncertainty for the business travel
industry. With another conflict in the Middle East, global markets stalling,
and public confidence in government and big business shaken, its tough to
find the silver lining for our profession. The experts are far from
consensus. According to economist Michael J. Mandel, "growth
optimists" and
"economic declinists" are slugging it out to determine the appropriate
approach to jump-starting the economy. There is no denying that our industry
mirrors the bigger picture of the global economy -- and that picture is
scrambled.
But it's important to remember that we are experts too. And rather than wait
for the prophecies of other experts to come true by default, I strongly
suggest we work to find alternative methods to solving our problems. I
recommend we use ACTE's next Global Conference in Las Vegas as a summit
meeting to react to the state of our industry. Our educational program has
been designed to generate new information pertinent to developing the most
sensible course of action. Our networking opportunities have always served to
advance the cause of the individual travel manager. Why not use them this
year as the vehicle to advance the cause of an industry?
It would be naive to suggest that any action we take could reverse the
world's economic state. Carriers may still fall into bankruptcy or fail.
Support industries may still find themselves in dire straits. However, we
need to face these issues head on, to be sure that the action we take now --
howsoever drastic or painful -- minimizes the damage and serves to prevent
these circumstances from occurring again.
Sincerely,
Mark A. Williams
ACTE President
Association of Corporate Travel Executive
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ACTE
Over 2,500 Buniess Travel Professionals Working Together to Advance the Industry
ACTE's Core Purpose:
To Advance the development and growth of the business travel professional worldwide
ACTE's Strategic Intent:
To be the leading worldwide network of business travel professionals.
ACTE US and Canada
515 King St, Suite 340
Alexandria, VA 22314
Tel: 1-703-683-5322
Fax: 1-703-683-2720
[email protected]
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Avenue des Gaulois 7
B-1040 Brussels, Belgium
Tel: 32.2.743.1589
Fax: 32.2.743.1550
[email protected]
ACTE Asia Pacific
(new office details to be announced shortly)
[email protected]
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