(T201)
Visions of the Future - Travel Industry Scenarios and Strategic Planning

One of the big problems in all businesses is the necessity of making a decision now, knowing that the implications of that decision will play out over a time far, far longer than the time over which we can have any feeling of certainty. The decision by Airbus, for example, to build its monster jet commits Airbus for decades. And if, for whatever reason, the demand for air transport collapses, or - more subtly - doesn't collapse, but moves towards smaller airframes, then Airbus could well go broke. But if it doesn't, they will gain a major advantage over arch-rival Boeing. How can such decisions be taken wisely? Is it a hunch? The whim or driving will of the CEO? Or maybe a roll of the dice? How can we sensibly take decisions, and plan, under conditions of uncertainty? This session will begin to lay the framework for an ongoing ACTE initiative on building travel industry scenarios or histories-in-advance that will create a context in which individual organizations across the travel management spectrum can formulate individual business strategies.

Presenter:
Dennis Sherwood, Managing Director, The Silver Bullet Machine Co, Ltd.